Argumentum Computem ad Infinitum
About a year ago, 2024-08-22, I was reading Leopold Aschenbrenner’s post1 on AGI and I had jotted down a musing about a scaling law observations, but I forgot to write about it. I found my note today. So I get that it is possible to look at charts comparing compute and performance and many conclude scaling laws mean AGI is inevitable. I like Yann Lecun’s perspective here that if transformer models are giant lookup tables, then making them bigger will make them appear more impressive, but this is not sustainable....